Daily Bias Calculator
Determine daily directional bias using ICT concepts including previous day range and key levels.
Reviewed for accuracy by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer
Daily Bias Calculator
Calculator
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Formula: Bias Score = PD Candle Direction + Close Position + PD Mid Test + Weekly Zone + PD High/Low Break
Worked example — Moderate Bullish Bias (71% bullish score). Look for long entries during London/NY killzone at discount levels.
Formula
Bias Score = PD Candle Direction + Close Position + PD Mid Test + Weekly Zone + PD High/Low Break
The daily bias is calculated by scoring multiple factors: previous day candle direction and close position, current price relative to the previous day midpoint and range extremes, and the position within the weekly range. Each factor adds to either the bullish or bearish score, with the dominant score determining the directional bias and its strength.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Bullish Daily Bias Setup
Problem:Previous day: High 1.1050, Low 1.0950, Open 1.0970, Close 1.1020. Current price 1.1035. Weekly range 1.0900-1.1100. Determine daily bias.
Solution:PD Range = 100 pips, PD Mid = 1.1000 Close at 1.1020 = Upper third (bullish candle) Body = +50 pips (bullish, 50% of range) Current price 1.1035 > PD Mid (bullish) Weekly position: 67.5% (premium) Bullish signals: 5, Bearish signals: 2
Result:Moderate Bullish Bias (71% bullish score). Look for long entries during London/NY killzone at discount levels.
Example 2: Bearish Daily Bias Setup
Problem:Previous day: High 1.2500, Low 1.2380, Open 1.2470, Close 1.2400. Current price 1.2370. Weekly range 1.2300-1.2550. Determine bias.
Solution:PD Range = 120 pips, PD Mid = 1.2440 Close at 1.2400 = Lower third (bearish candle) Body = -70 pips (bearish, 58% of range) Current price 1.2370 < PD Low (bearish) Weekly position: 28% (discount) Bearish signals: 6, Bullish signals: 2
Result:Strong Bearish Bias (75% bearish score). Look for short entries at premium levels during killzone sessions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is daily bias in ICT trading methodology?
Daily bias refers to the expected directional movement for the current trading day, determined by analyzing higher timeframe market structure, previous day price action, and key reference levels. In ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology, establishing daily bias is the first critical step before looking for trade setups. A bullish bias means you expect price to move higher and only look for long entries, while a bearish bias means you expect lower prices and only look for shorts. Having a clear bias prevents overtrading and ensures all your entries align with the anticipated institutional order flow direction for that particular session.
How does the previous day range influence daily bias?
The previous day range provides critical reference points for determining directional bias. If the previous day closed in the upper third of its range with a bullish body, the bias tilts bullish because it shows buyers maintained control into the close. Conversely, a close in the lower third with a bearish body suggests seller dominance and a bearish bias. The previous day midpoint serves as an equilibrium level, and where price opens relative to this midpoint provides additional bias confirmation. A close above the previous day high signals strong bullish momentum, while a close below the previous day low indicates strong bearish pressure from institutional participants.
What role do weekly high and low play in daily bias determination?
The weekly range provides the higher timeframe context essential for daily bias analysis. If the current price sits in the weekly discount zone (below the weekly midpoint), the overall framework favors bullish bias because institutional traders typically accumulate positions at discounted prices. When price is in the weekly premium zone (above the midpoint), bearish bias is favored as smart money distributes positions. Weekly highs and lows also represent liquidity pools that price may target. If the weekly high has not been swept, a bullish daily bias aligns with the expectation that price will reach for that liquidity above the weekly high.
What are ICT killzones and how do they relate to daily bias?
ICT killzones are specific time windows during the trading day when institutional activity peaks and high-probability setups form. The main killzones are London Open (2:00-5:00 AM EST), New York Open (7:00-10:00 AM EST), and London Close (10:00 AM-12:00 PM EST). Daily bias determines which direction you trade during these killzones. With a bullish bias, you look for discount entries (pullbacks) during the killzone to go long. With a bearish bias, you look for premium entries (rallies) to go short. The Asian session (8:00 PM-12:00 AM EST) often establishes the range that gets manipulated during the London and New York killzones.
How do pivot points complement ICT daily bias analysis?
Classic pivot points calculated from the previous day high, low, and close provide objective support and resistance levels that complement ICT bias analysis. The central pivot point often acts as a magnet for price and an equilibrium zone. In a bullish bias day, price typically holds above the pivot and targets R1 and R2 levels. In a bearish bias day, price stays below the pivot and targets S1 and S2. These pivot levels also coincide with potential order block locations and fair value gaps. Many institutional algorithms reference pivot points, making them self-fulfilling levels that align well with the ICT framework for identifying where smart money may step in.
Can daily bias change during the trading day?
Yes, daily bias can be invalidated and reversed during the trading day, though this should happen rarely if your analysis is thorough. Bias invalidation typically occurs when price breaks through a key structural level that contradicts your directional expectation. For a bullish bias, invalidation might come from price breaking below the previous day low with conviction. For a bearish bias, a strong break above the previous day high could invalidate it. ICT teaches that if your bias is invalidated, you should stop trading for the day rather than reverse and chase the opposite direction. Frequent bias invalidation suggests your higher timeframe analysis needs improvement.
What is the relationship between market structure and daily bias?
Market structure is the foundation upon which daily bias is built. On the higher timeframe (4-hour or daily chart), if price is making higher highs and higher lows, the market structure is bullish and the default daily bias should be bullish. If price makes lower highs and lower lows, the structure is bearish. A break of structure (BOS) occurs when price takes out a previous swing point in the direction of the trend, confirming continuation. A change of character (CHoCH) happens when price breaks structure in the opposite direction, potentially shifting the bias. Daily bias should always align with the higher timeframe market structure unless a clear CHoCH has occurred.
How does the Asian session range factor into daily bias?
The Asian session (roughly 8:00 PM to 12:00 AM EST) typically creates a consolidation range that sets up the subsequent London and New York sessions. ICT teaches that this Asian range often gets raided during the London open, with price sweeping one side of the Asian range before reversing in the direction of the daily bias. In a bullish bias day, expect the Asian low to be swept (stop hunt below) before price rallies higher. In a bearish bias day, expect the Asian high to be taken before price drops. The Asian range width also indicates expected volatility, as narrow Asian ranges often precede larger directional moves during the London and New York sessions.
What confirmation signals should I look for before trading my daily bias?
Before executing trades based on your daily bias, seek multiple confirmations on the lower timeframe. First, wait for a displacement move (strong momentum candle) in the direction of your bias. Second, look for a fair value gap (FVG) created by that displacement, which acts as an entry zone. Third, identify an order block (the last opposing candle before the displacement) as a potential entry point. Fourth, confirm that a break of structure has occurred on your entry timeframe. Fifth, ensure you are trading during a killzone session for maximum probability. Having three or more of these confirmations significantly increases your win rate and validates that your daily bias assessment is correct.
How reliable is daily bias analysis and what is a realistic accuracy rate?
Experienced ICT practitioners typically achieve 55-65% accuracy in daily bias determination, which is sufficient for profitability when combined with proper risk management and favorable risk-to-reward ratios. Perfect accuracy is impossible because markets are influenced by unexpected news events, central bank interventions, and shifting institutional positioning. The key insight is that you do not need to be right every day. A 60% accuracy rate with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio produces strong returns over time. Traders should journal their daily bias predictions and outcomes to track accuracy and identify patterns in their analysis. Avoiding trading on days when the bias is unclear significantly improves overall performance.
References
Reviewed for accuracy by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer · Editorial policy
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