Ict Standard Deviation Calculator
Calculate standard deviation projections from Asian range for ICT daily range expansion. Enter values for instant results with step-by-step formulas.
Reviewed for accuracy by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer
Ict Standard Deviation Calculator
Calculator
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Formula: SD Level = Asian High/Low + (Asian Range x SD Multiplier)
Worked example — SD 2.0: 1.1100 | SD 2.5: 1.1120 | SD 3.0: 1.1140 | Optimal: SD 2.0
Formula
SD Level = Asian High/Low + (Asian Range x SD Multiplier)
Where SD Level is the projected price target, Asian High is used for bullish projections (or Asian Low for bearish), Asian Range is the difference between Asian session high and low, and SD Multiplier ranges from 1.0 to 4.0.
Worked Examples
Example 1: EUR/USD Bullish SD Projections from Asian Range
Problem:EUR/USD Asian range is 1.0980-1.1020 (40 pips). ADR is 80 pips. Bias is bullish. Calculate all SD projection levels.
Solution:Asian range: 40 pips (1.0980 - 1.1020) 1.0 SD from Asian high: 1.1020 + 0.0040 = 1.1060 2.0 SD: 1.1020 + 0.0080 = 1.1100 2.5 SD: 1.1020 + 0.0100 = 1.1120 3.0 SD: 1.1020 + 0.0120 = 1.1140 4.0 SD: 1.1020 + 0.0160 = 1.1180 ADR comparison: 2.0 SD (80 pips total from low) matches ADR Optimal target: SD 2.0-2.5
Result:SD 2.0: 1.1100 | SD 2.5: 1.1120 | SD 3.0: 1.1140 | Optimal: SD 2.0
Example 2: GBP/USD Bearish SD Expansion Analysis
Problem:GBP/USD Asian range 1.2750-1.2780 (30 pips). Price dropped to 1.2710. ADR is 100 pips. Calculate current expansion and remaining targets.
Solution:Asian range: 30 pips Current expansion from Asian low: 1.2750 - 1.2710 = 40 pips = 1.33 SD SD 2.0 target: 1.2750 - 0.0060 = 1.2690 (40 pips away) SD 2.5 target: 1.2750 - 0.0075 = 1.2675 (35 pips further) SD 3.0 target: 1.2750 - 0.0090 = 1.2660 ADR suggests room for SD 3.0+ (only 70/100 pips used) Optimal target: SD 3.0
Result:Currently at 1.33 SD | SD 2.0: 1.2690 | SD 3.0: 1.2660 | 40 pips remaining to SD 2.0
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ICT Standard Deviation projection and how is it calculated?
The ICT Standard Deviation projection is a method for forecasting potential daily price targets based on the width of the Asian trading session range. The concept uses the Asian range as one unit of standard deviation (1 SD) and then projects multiples of this range from the Asian session high or low to identify potential expansion targets. For example, if the Asian range is 40 pips, the 1 SD projection is 40 pips beyond the Asian high (bullish) or low (bearish), the 2 SD projection is 80 pips, 2.5 SD is 100 pips, and so on. ICT teaches that the typical daily range expansion reaches between 2.0 and 3.0 standard deviations from the Asian range, with the most common target being the 2.5 SD level.
Why is the Asian session range used as the basis for standard deviation calculations?
The Asian session range is used because it represents the accumulation phase of the daily Power of Three cycle, where institutional algorithms establish their positions within a defined range before expanding price during the London and New York sessions. The width of this accumulation range reflects the current market conditions, with tighter ranges indicating potential for larger expansions and wider ranges suggesting the market may have already priced in significant movement. The Asian range also acts as a natural volatility measure specific to each trading day, unlike fixed pip targets that do not account for changing market conditions. By using the Asian range as the SD unit, the projection automatically scales with daily volatility.
What are the typical probability levels for each standard deviation projection?
Based on ICT observations and historical analysis, the probability of price reaching each standard deviation level decreases as the projection extends further. The 1.0 SD level is reached approximately 75 percent of trading days, as most sessions feature at least a moderate expansion beyond the Asian range. The 2.0 SD level is reached about 50 percent of the time, representing an average daily expansion. The 2.5 SD level, which is the most commonly referenced target, is reached approximately 35 percent of the time on trending days. The 3.0 SD level represents significant expansion reached about 20 percent of the time, typically on high-volatility days. The 4.0 SD level is an extreme expansion reached only about 10 percent of the time, usually coinciding with major news events or trend days.
How does the Average Daily Range relate to standard deviation projections?
The Average Daily Range (ADR) provides an independent benchmark for validating standard deviation projections. If the ADR is 80 pips and the Asian range is 30 pips, then the expected daily expansion would be approximately 2.5 to 3.0 standard deviations (75-90 pips from the Asian low to the daily high). When the SD projection aligns with the ADR, it increases confidence in the target level. If the 2.5 SD projection exceeds the ADR significantly, it suggests the target may be too ambitious for a normal day. Conversely, if the 2.0 SD projection is well below the ADR, a wider expansion toward 3.0 or 4.0 SD becomes more likely. Ict Standard Deviation Calculator compares your SD projections against the ADR to recommend the optimal target level.
When should I use bullish versus bearish standard deviation projections?
The direction of standard deviation projections should align with your higher timeframe institutional bias and the Power of Three (AMD) analysis for the current day. Use bullish projections when the daily or 4-hour chart shows bullish market structure (higher highs and higher lows), when price has swept sell-side liquidity below the Asian low during the London session manipulation phase, and when the seasonal tendency supports upward movement. Use bearish projections when market structure is bearish, when buy-side liquidity above the Asian high has been swept, and when the overall bias is down. The direction is typically confirmed during the London session when the manipulation phase reveals which side of the Asian range the algorithm targets for the initial liquidity sweep.
What is the optimal standard deviation level to use as a profit target?
The optimal SD level for profit targets depends on market conditions and the specific day type. For average volatility days, the 2.0 SD level provides a realistic target with a 50 percent probability of being reached. For trending days with clear directional momentum and multiple confluences, the 2.5 SD level offers a good balance between probability and reward. On high-impact news days or days following prolonged consolidation, the 3.0 SD level becomes viable as breakout energy drives extended expansion. A practical approach is to take partial profits at the 2.0 SD level (50 percent of position) and trail the remainder toward the 2.5 or 3.0 SD level. This ensures some profit is captured while allowing for full daily expansion when it occurs.
How do I identify when the daily expansion is likely to exceed normal standard deviation levels?
Several factors signal potential for above-average daily expansion beyond the typical 2.0-2.5 SD targets. A narrow Asian range relative to the 20-day average suggests pent-up energy that can produce expansion to 3.0 or 4.0 SD. High-impact scheduled news releases like Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI data, or central bank decisions frequently generate 3.0+ SD expansion days. Multiple timeframe alignment where the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts all confirm the same directional bias increases the probability of extended moves. A break of a significant daily or weekly structure level can trigger trend continuation to 3.0+ SD. Days following a tight consolidation pattern on the daily chart also tend to produce larger-than-average expansions when they finally break out.
How does the current expansion in standard deviations help with trade management?
Tracking the current expansion in SD units provides real-time context for trade management decisions. If you are long and price has already expanded 1.5 SD from the Asian high, you know the market has completed roughly 60 percent of the typical 2.5 SD daily expansion, informing how much further the move is likely to extend. If the expansion reaches 2.0 SD and momentum is slowing, tightening the stop loss or taking partial profits is prudent. An expansion beyond 3.0 SD with decelerating momentum is a strong signal to close remaining positions rather than hoping for 4.0 SD, as mean reversion becomes increasingly likely. This real-time SD tracking also helps identify overextension, where entering new positions becomes risky because the daily range has already been largely consumed.
Can standard deviation projections be applied to timeframes other than the daily chart?
Yes, the standard deviation concept can be adapted to any timeframe by using the appropriate consolidation range as the SD base unit. On the weekly chart, the Monday Asian range or the entire Monday range can serve as the weekly SD unit, with projections extending through Friday. On the 4-hour chart, the first 4-hour candle of the London session can serve as the range for intraday SD projections lasting 2 to 3 subsequent candles. On the 1-hour chart, the range of the first hourly macro candle can project targets for the next 2 to 4 hours. The key principle is that a period of consolidation followed by expansion is fractal, meaning it occurs on all timeframes. The probabilities remain similar across timeframes, with 2.0 to 2.5 SD being the most common expansion.
What are common mistakes traders make when using ICT Standard Deviation projections?
The most common mistake is treating SD levels as exact price targets rather than zones of interest. Price rarely hits an SD level to the pip and reverses precisely. Instead, traders should view each level as a zone extending roughly 5 to 10 pips on either side. Another frequent error is projecting in the wrong direction by not establishing the daily bias first, leading to missed targets. Some traders fixate on the highest SD levels (3.0 or 4.0), only targeting extreme projections and missing the more probable 1.5 to 2.0 SD completions. Using an incorrect Asian range boundary is also problematic, as including pre-market spikes or using the wrong session definition can skew all subsequent projections. Finally, ignoring the ADR comparison can lead to unrealistic expectations on low-volatility days.
References
Reviewed for accuracy by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer · Editorial policy
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