H1b Lottery Probability Calculator
Calculate your probability of being selected in the H1B visa lottery. Estimate selection odds based on number of registrations, total applicants.
H1b Lottery Probability Calculator
Calculator
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Formula: P(selected) = 1 - (1 - Cap/Total)^registrations
Worked example — 17.7% probability of selection
Formula
P(selected) = 1 - (1 - Cap/Total)^registrations
The probability of at least one selection equals 1 minus the probability of none being selected. For a single registration, the probability is simply Cap/Total. Note: since FY2024, USCIS uses beneficiary-centric selection, so multiple registrations for the same person do not increase odds.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Single Registration
Problem:Calculate selection probability for one registration with 480,000 total registrations and 85,000 cap.
Solution:Selection rate = 85,000 / 480,000 = 17.7% Probability with 1 registration = 17.7%
Result:17.7% probability of selection
Example 2: Historical Comparison (FY2024)
Problem:In FY2024, approximately 759,000 registrations were submitted for 85,000 spots.
Solution:Selection rate = 85,000 / 759,000 = 11.2% This was one of the lowest selection rates in H1B lottery history.
Result:11.2% per registration — extremely competitive year
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the H1B lottery work?
The H1B lottery is conducted when USCIS receives more electronic registrations than the annual cap of 85,000 visas (65,000 regular cap + 20,000 for US master's degree holders). Each fiscal year, employers submit registrations during a designated period (typically March). USCIS then conducts a random selection. Selected registrants can then file their H1B petitions. Since FY2024, USCIS selects by unique beneficiary rather than by registration to prevent multiple registrations from inflating odds.
What is the H1B cap for the current fiscal year?
The annual H1B cap is 85,000 visas: 65,000 under the regular cap and 20,000 reserved for beneficiaries with a US master's degree or higher. Cap-exempt employers (universities, nonprofit research organizations, government research organizations) are not subject to the cap. Additionally, some H1B visas are allocated through specific country agreements (e.g., Chile and Singapore).
Can multiple employers register the same person?
Yes, multiple employers can submit separate registrations for the same beneficiary. However, since FY2024, USCIS implemented a beneficiary-centric selection process, meaning each unique beneficiary has only one chance of selection regardless of how many registrations are submitted on their behalf. This was designed to prevent companies from filing multiple registrations to gain an unfair advantage.
What happens if I'm not selected in the H1B lottery?
If not selected, alternatives include: (1) Try again the following year. (2) Consider O1 visa for individuals with extraordinary ability. (3) L1 visa if your employer has foreign offices. (4) Pursue a master's degree for the 20,000 advanced degree exemption pool. (5) Apply for employment through cap-exempt employers. (6) Consider EB-based green card directly if eligible. (7) Explore immigration to other countries (Canada Express Entry, etc.).
Why does the formula use 1 minus the chance of no selection?
Selection is modelled as independent draws, so it is easier to compute the complement. If a single registration has selection probability p = Cap ÷ Total, the chance it fails is (1 − p), and the chance every one of n registrations fails is (1 − p)^n. Subtracting that from 1 gives the chance of at least one success. With p = 85,000 ÷ 480,000 ≈ 0.177, two independent registrations give 1 − 0.823² ≈ 32.3%.
How does beneficiary-centric selection change the meaning of multiple registrations?
Under the registration-centric system, each employer submission was a separate ticket, so the exponent n in the formula genuinely raised the odds. Beneficiary-centric selection instead draws unique beneficiaries, so a person registered by five employers still has one entry, and n should be set to 1 for a realistic estimate. Multiple registrations then affect only which employer may file the petition if that beneficiary is drawn, not the probability itself.
How does the master's cap change the odds for a US advanced-degree holder?
The 20,000 advanced-degree allocation works as a second chance rather than a separate pool. Registrations are first run against the 65,000 regular cap using the whole eligible field, and beneficiaries with a qualifying US master's or higher who were not drawn are then entered against the remaining 20,000. Model this as two sequential draws: the overall probability is higher than a single 85,000 ÷ total pass, which is why advanced-degree filers historically see better rates.
What is the difference between the registration selection rate and the approval rate?
Selection only earns the right to file. After a beneficiary is drawn, the employer must submit a full I-129 petition showing the role is a specialty occupation, that the wage meets the prevailing wage level and that the beneficiary is qualified. Petitions can draw a request for evidence or be denied, and H1b Lottery Probability Calculator measures none of that. Treat the output strictly as the lottery-stage probability.
Why do cap-exempt employers not appear in this probability at all?
Universities and their affiliated non-profit entities, non-profit research organisations and government research organisations can file H-1B petitions at any time of year without entering the cap. Their beneficiaries never join the registration pool, so they neither reduce nor benefit from the ratio in H1b Lottery Probability Calculator. Moving to a cap-exempt employer is the one route that takes the lottery probability out of the decision entirely.
How should I interpret a falling selection rate across fiscal years?
The cap has stayed at 85,000, so year-to-year swings in the rate come almost entirely from the denominator. When total registrations roughly double, the per-beneficiary probability roughly halves, which is why the historical comparison table on this page moves so sharply. Use the most recent registration total you trust as the input, and treat older years as a range of plausible outcomes rather than a forecast.
References
Reviewed for accuracy by Abdullah, Technical Content Specialist · Editorial policy
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