Goalie Quality Start Percentage Calculator (QS%)
Calculate a goalie's quality start percentage from games played and quality starts, the stat scouts use over save percentage.
Reviewed for accuracy by Sher, Sports Science & Nutrition Specialist
Goalie Quality Start Percentage Calculator (QS%)
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Formula: QS% = (Quality Starts / Games Started) x 100
Worked example — QS% = 60.0% (Excellent) | QS:RBS Ratio = 3.75:1
Formula
QS% = (Quality Starts / Games Started) x 100
A Quality Start is any game where the goaltender finishes with a save percentage of .913 or higher. QS% measures how consistently a goalie delivers at least average performance. A Really Bad Start (RBS) is a game with save percentage below .850.
Worked Examples
Example 1: NHL Starting Goaltender QS%
Problem:A starting goaltender has 30 quality starts, 8 really bad starts, and 12 neutral starts in 50 games started.
Solution:QS% = (Quality Starts / Games Started) x 100 QS% = (30 / 50) x 100 = 60.0% RBS% = (8 / 50) x 100 = 16.0% Neutral% = (12 / 50) x 100 = 24.0% QS:RBS Ratio = 30 / 8 = 3.75
Result:QS% = 60.0% (Excellent) | QS:RBS Ratio = 3.75:1
Example 2: Comparing Two Goaltenders
Problem:Goalie A: 22 QS in 45 starts. Goalie B: 18 QS in 30 starts. Who is more consistent?
Solution:Goalie A QS% = (22 / 45) x 100 = 48.9% Goalie B QS% = (18 / 30) x 100 = 60.0% Goalie B has a significantly higher QS% despite fewer total quality starts. Goalie B delivers quality outings more consistently.
Result:Goalie A: 48.9% (Average) | Goalie B: 60.0% (Excellent)
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a quality start in hockey and how is it defined?
A quality start (QS) in hockey is defined as any game in which a goaltender finishes with a save percentage of .913 or higher, which approximates the league-average save percentage. This metric was created by hockey analytics writer Rob Vollman as a way to evaluate goaltender consistency on a game-by-game basis rather than relying solely on season-long averages. The .913 threshold was chosen because it represents roughly the median save percentage across the NHL, meaning a goalie who achieves this or better has given their team a solid chance to win. Quality starts provide insight into how often a goaltender delivers a reliable performance.
How is Quality Start Percentage calculated?
Quality Start Percentage (QS%) is calculated by dividing the number of quality starts by the total number of games started, then multiplying by 100. For example, if a goalie has 28 quality starts in 50 games started, their QS% is (28 / 50) x 100 = 56%. This metric measures consistency rather than peak performance. A goalie could have a high overall save percentage due to several dominant performances but a low QS% if they are inconsistent from game to game. The formula only counts games where the goaltender was the starter, excluding relief appearances where they entered mid-game and faced a limited number of shots.
What is considered a good Quality Start Percentage in the NHL?
In the NHL, a QS% above 57% is considered excellent and typically indicates an elite, consistent goaltender. The league average QS% hovers around 50%, which makes sense given that the quality start threshold is set at the approximate league-average save percentage. Top Vezina Trophy candidates often post QS% values in the 60 to 70% range during their best seasons. A QS% between 52% and 57% is above average, while 45% to 52% is roughly average. Below 45% suggests the goaltender is frequently underperforming league-average standards and may be a liability for their team on many game nights.
What is a Really Bad Start and why does it matter?
A Really Bad Start (RBS) is defined as a game where the goaltender save percentage falls below .850, meaning they allowed significantly more goals than expected given the shots faced. For example, allowing 5 goals on 25 shots (.800 save percentage) would qualify as a Really Bad Start. This metric matters because it identifies games where the goaltender was a clear negative contributor to the team outcome. A high RBS count can undermine an otherwise decent overall save percentage. Analysts often look at the ratio of quality starts to really bad starts as a measure of goaltender reliability and the likelihood they will help rather than hurt.
How does Quality Start Percentage differ from wins as a goalie statistic?
Quality Start Percentage is a superior measure of individual goaltender performance compared to wins because wins are heavily dependent on offensive support. A goalie can post a .940 save percentage and still lose 1-0, which is clearly an excellent individual performance that results in a loss. Conversely, a goalie can allow 5 goals but win 7-5, which inflates their win total despite poor goaltending. QS% removes this offensive dependency by focusing solely on whether the goaltender performed at or above league-average standards. Research has shown that QS% correlates more strongly with future goaltender performance than win percentage does.
Can Quality Start Percentage predict future goaltender performance?
Quality Start Percentage has shown moderate predictive value for future goaltender performance, though it works best when combined with other metrics. Studies in hockey analytics have found that QS% from one season correlates with QS% in the following season at a higher rate than raw wins or even overall save percentage. The consistency aspect of QS% captures an important element of goaltending that single-number metrics miss. However, QS% does not account for shot quality or defensive support, so goalies on strong defensive teams may have inflated QS% values. For the best predictions, analysts combine QS% with expected goals metrics and high-danger save percentage.
How many starts does a goalie need for QS% to be meaningful?
For Quality Start Percentage to be statistically meaningful, a goaltender should have at least 15 to 20 starts. With fewer starts, a single bad or great game can swing the percentage by 5 to 7 percentage points, making the metric unreliable. Most serious analyses require a minimum of 25 starts to include a goaltender in QS% rankings. For mid-season evaluations, 20 starts provides a reasonable sample, though the margin of error remains wider than with a full season of 40+ starts. Backup goalies who make only 15 to 20 starts per season should have their QS% interpreted with more caution than starters with 50+ starts.
How does the quality start threshold change for different leagues?
The standard .913 quality start threshold was calibrated for the NHL, and it should be adjusted when applied to other leagues with different scoring environments. In higher-scoring leagues like the AHL, WHL, or OHL, the league-average save percentage may be lower (around .900 to .905), so the QS threshold should be lowered accordingly. In lower-scoring leagues or international play, where save percentages tend to be higher, the threshold should be raised. Some analysts calculate the QS threshold dynamically each season by using the actual league-average save percentage for that specific season, which ensures the metric remains meaningful regardless of league-wide scoring trends.
What is the relationship between QS% and team success?
Research has consistently shown a strong correlation between goaltender Quality Start Percentage and team success, measured by both points percentage and playoff qualification. Teams whose starting goaltender maintains a QS% above 55% make the playoffs at a much higher rate than teams with goaltenders below 50% QS%. This makes intuitive sense because a quality start means the goalie gave the team a fair chance to win, and consistently getting fair chances leads to more wins over an 82-game season. However, elite offensive teams can sometimes overcome lower goaltender QS% through offensive support, though this approach is less reliable in the playoffs.
Should you consider QS% when evaluating goaltender trades or free agent signings?
Quality Start Percentage is a valuable tool for evaluating goaltender acquisitions because it reveals consistency patterns that raw statistics might hide. Two goalies with identical .915 save percentages could have very different QS% values if one is consistently solid while the other alternates between dominant and terrible performances. For trade and free agency decisions, analysts often look at multi-year QS% trends to separate sustainable performance from single-season outliers. A goaltender who has maintained a QS% above 55% over three consecutive seasons is a much safer bet than one who posted 62% one year but was below 45% the years before and after.
References
Reviewed for accuracy by Sher, Sports Science & Nutrition Specialist · Editorial policy
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