Retention Cohort Forecast
Forecast user retention with cohort analysis and LTV projections. Enter values for instant results with step-by-step formulas.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Mobile App Launch
Problem:New app, 1,000 user cohort. Day 1: 35%, Day 7: 20%, Day 30: 12%. 6% monthly churn thereafter.
Solution:Retention curve shows 88% lost by Day 30. Of survivors, 6% monthly churn = average 16-month lifetime. Focus: improve Day 1→7 retention to 60%+ to retain the improvement downstream.
Result:12% D30 retention | Fair grade | LTV ~$160 | Improve early retention urgently
Example 2: SaaS Product
Problem:B2B tool, 500 signups. Day 1: 70%, Day 7: 55%, Day 30: 45%. 3% monthly churn.
Solution:Strong early retention. 45% make it to month 1. 3% churn = ~33 month average lifetime. Excellent unit economics if acquisition is efficient.
Result:45% D30 retention | Excellent grade | LTV ~$1,650 | Focus on growth
Example 3: E-commerce Cohort
Problem:1,000 new customers. Day 1: 25%, Day 7: 18%, Day 30: 8%. 8% monthly churn.
Solution:Very high early churn typical for e-commerce (many one-time buyers). Focus on converting Day 30 survivors to repeat buyers. Loyalty programs target this 8%.
Result:8% D30 retention | Typical for e-commerce | Focus on repeat conversion
Frequently Asked Questions
What is cohort retention analysis?
Cohort analysis groups users by signup date and tracks what percentage remain active over time. This reveals retention patterns, identifies when churn happens, and enables comparison between cohorts to measure improvement.
What's a good Day 1 retention rate?
Varies by product. Consumer apps: 30-50%. B2B SaaS: 60-80%. Games: 20-40%. Social apps: 40-60%. Day 1 is critical—users who don't return immediately often never return.
How do I improve Day 1 retention?
Deliver value immediately. Show quick wins in onboarding, reduce friction to aha moment, use welcome emails or push notifications, and make Day 1 experience exceptional. Many apps lose users before they experience core value.
What is good 30-day retention?
Consumer apps: 10-25%. B2B SaaS: 60-80%. E-commerce: 5-15%. Context matters—complex products expect higher retention; simple/casual apps accept lower. 30-day retention strongly predicts long-term retention.