Headcount & Hiring Plan Simulator
Model headcount growth with attrition, calculate hiring velocity, recruiter needs, and total costs.
Formula
Total Hires = Net Growth + (Current Headcount × Attrition% × Period Years)
Account for both net growth and replacement hires from attrition. Hires per month = Total Hires / Months. Recruiter needs = Hires per Month / Recruiter Capacity.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Startup Scaling
Problem:Current: 20 employees. Target: 50 in 12 months. 15% attrition, 60 days TTH, $90K avg, 1 recruiter (5/mo capacity).
Solution:Net growth: 50 - 20 = 30 Attrition: 20 × 15% = 3/year Total hires: 30 + 3 = 33 Per month: 33 / 12 = 2.75 hires Per quarter: 8.25 Recruiter check: 2.75 hires/mo < 5 capacity ✓ 1 recruiter sufficient Pipeline: 60-day TTH = start 2 months early Need 2.75 × 4 funnel × 2mo = 22 candidates in process Costs: Recruiting: 33 × $5,000 = $165K Comp (avg 6mo): 33 × $121.5K × 0.5 = $2M Total: $2.16M
Result:2.75 hires/mo | 1 recruiter OK | $2.16M total cost
Example 2: Aggressive Expansion
Problem:Current: 100. Target: 200 in 18 months. 12% attrition, 45 days TTH, $110K avg, 2 recruiters.
Solution:Net growth: 100 Attrition: 100 × 12% × 1.5yrs = 18 Total hires: 100 + 18 = 118 Per month: 118 / 18 = 6.6 hires Per quarter: 19.7 Recruiter check: 2 recruiters × 5 capacity = 10/mo capacity 6.6 < 10 ✓ (but tight) Pipeline: 6.6 hires × 4 funnel = 26 interviews/mo × 2 mo lead time = 52 candidates active Costs: Recruiting: 118 × $5,000 = $590K Comp (avg 9mo): 118 × $148.5K × 0.75 = $13.1M Total: $13.7M Feasibility: Aggressive but achievable
Result:6.6 hires/mo | Need 2 recruiters minimum | $13.7M cost
Example 3: Replacement Hiring Only
Problem:Current: 200. Maintain 200. 18% attrition, 50 days TTH, $95K avg.
Solution:No growth, just backfills. Annual attrition: 200 × 18% = 36 employees/year Monthly: 3 hires/month Recruiters: 3 / 5 = 0.6 FTE 1 recruiter with bandwidth This is maintenance hiring. High attrition (18%) is expensive: Costs: Recruiting: 36 × $5,000 = $180K/year Compensation: Always paying full 200 Knowledge loss, productivity dips Recommendation: Reduce attrition to 12% Saves 12 hires/year = $60K recruiting + intangible productivity gains
Result:3 hires/mo (backfill only) | 18% attrition is expensive | Focus on retention
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I plan headcount growth?
Steps: 1) Set target headcount and timeline. 2) Account for attrition (turnover during hiring period). 3) Calculate hires per month. 4) Assess recruiter capacity. 5) Model costs. 6) Build pipeline ahead of need.
What is attrition and why does it matter?
Attrition is employee turnover rate (voluntary + involuntary). 10-15% annually is typical. Must account for backfills during growth period - hiring 25 net with 15% attrition requires ~29 total hires.
What is time-to-hire?
Average days from opening requisition to accepted offer. Typical: 30-45 days for junior roles, 60-90 days for senior, 90+ for executives. Impacts pipeline planning - longer time-to-hire requires earlier starts.
How many candidates do I need?
Funnel: 100 applicants → 10 phone screens → 3 onsites → 1 offer → 0.8 hires (accounting for offer declines). Roughly 125:1 applicants-to-hires. Quality sourcing improves ratios.
What does a recruiter's capacity look like?
Full-cycle recruiter: 5-8 hires/month sustained, 3-5 for senior roles. At peak efficiency with good pipeline. Coordinators and sourcers increase capacity. In-house recruiters outperform agencies on sustained hiring.
What are loaded costs?
Loaded cost = salary + benefits (20-35%): health insurance, 401k match, payroll taxes, equipment, office space. $100K salary = $130K-140K loaded. Use loaded costs for budget planning.
What is cost per hire?
Total recruiting costs divided by hires. Includes: recruiter salaries, job boards, agency fees, tools, referral bonuses, interview time. Average: $4,000-5,000 internal, $15,000-30,000 agency (20-30% of salary).
How do I reduce time-to-hire?
Tactics: maintain candidate pipeline, simplify interviews (3-4 stages max), make quick decisions, strong employer brand, referral programs, and realistic job requirements. Speed correlates with accept rates - good candidates have options.
Should I hire ahead of revenue?
Startups often hire 6-12 months ahead of revenue needs to support growth. Risk: burn rate. Safer: hire as metrics validate need, maintain 12-18 month runway. Sales and engineering typically hired ahead, support reactive.
What metrics should I track?
Key hiring metrics: time-to-hire, offer acceptance rate, source effectiveness, cost-per-hire, 90-day retention, interviewer load, and pipeline health. Review monthly to optimize hiring process.