Turtle Soup Calculator
Calculate parameters for ICT Turtle Soup setups — false breakouts of previous highs and lows. Enter values for instant results with step-by-step formulas.
Reviewed for accuracy by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer
Turtle Soup Calculator
Calculator
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Formula: Sweep Size = |Sweep Extreme - Previous Level|; Risk = |Entry - Stop Loss|; RR = P/L / Risk
Worked example — Quality: Ideal | Sweep: 15 pips (25% ATR) | Risk: 27.5 pips | Current: +25 pips (0.91R)
Formula
Sweep Size = |Sweep Extreme - Previous Level|; Risk = |Entry - Stop Loss|; RR = P/L / Risk
The sweep size measures how far price extended beyond the previous level. The sweep quality is evaluated as a percentage of ATR. Stop loss is placed beyond the sweep extreme with a buffer. Targets use risk multiples (2R, 3R, 5R) for systematic profit-taking.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Short Turtle Soup Above Previous High
Problem:EUR/USD previous day high is 1.0900. Price sweeps to 1.0915 during London open and reverses. Entry at 1.0895 (below the old high). ATR is 60 pips. Current price is 1.0870.
Solution:Previous Level: 1.0900 Sweep Extreme: 1.0915 (15 pips above) Sweep as % of ATR: 15/60 = 25% (Ideal range) Entry: 1.0895 Stop Loss: 1.0915 + (0.0015 x 0.5) = 1.092250 Risk: 1.092250 - 1.0895 = 27.5 pips TP1 (2R): 1.0895 - 0.0055 = 1.0840 TP2 (3R): 1.0895 - 0.00825 = 1.08125 Current P/L: (1.0895 - 1.0870) x 10000 = 25 pips profit
Result:Quality: Ideal | Sweep: 15 pips (25% ATR) | Risk: 27.5 pips | Current: +25 pips (0.91R)
Example 2: Long Turtle Soup Below Previous Low
Problem:GBP/USD previous week low is 1.2600. Price sweeps to 1.2585 during NY open, then reverses. Entry at 1.2605. ATR is 80 pips.
Solution:Previous Level: 1.2600 Sweep Extreme: 1.2585 (15 pips below) Sweep as % of ATR: 15/80 = 18.75% (Ideal range) Entry: 1.2605 Stop Loss: 1.2585 - (0.0015 x 0.5) = 1.25775 Risk: 1.2605 - 1.25775 = 27.5 pips TP1 (2R): 1.2605 + 0.0055 = 1.2660 TP2 (3R): 1.2605 + 0.00825 = 1.26875
Result:Quality: Ideal | Sweep: 15 pips (18.75% ATR) | Risk: 27.5 pips | Entry: 1.2605
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the ICT Turtle Soup pattern and where does the name come from?
The ICT Turtle Soup pattern is a reversal setup based on false breakouts of previous highs and lows. The name originates from the famous Turtle Traders strategy of the 1980s, where Richard Dennis taught traders to buy breakouts above 20-day highs and sell breakouts below 20-day lows. The Turtle Soup concept, first described by Linda Bradford Raschke and Larry Connors, is essentially the counter-trade to the Turtle strategy. ICT adapted this concept within the Smart Money framework, explaining that institutions deliberately push price beyond obvious breakout levels to trigger Turtle-style stop orders and breakout entries, then reverse the market. The liquidity generated by stopped-out traders and new breakout entries provides the counterparty for institutional positions.
How does a Turtle Soup setup differ from a regular false breakout?
While both involve price moving beyond a key level and reversing, the ICT Turtle Soup has specific qualifying criteria that distinguish it from random false breakouts. First, the level being swept must be a clean, obvious high or low that retail traders would mark as support or resistance, typically at least two or more touches. Second, the sweep should occur with specific characteristics: the price moves just beyond the level (typically less than 25% of ATR) rather than making a large, genuine breakout. Third, the setup should occur during a killzone trading session with sufficient institutional participation. Fourth, there should be signs of displacement on the reversal, confirming institutional involvement rather than simple profit-taking or ranging behavior.
What types of liquidity levels are most commonly targeted for Turtle Soup sweeps?
The most commonly targeted levels for Turtle Soup sweeps include previous day high and low, previous week high and low, equal highs and equal lows formations (which create concentrated stop-loss clusters), swing highs and lows on 4-hour and daily charts, and Asian session range extremes during London and New York opens. Equal highs and equal lows are particularly attractive targets because they represent the most visible and obvious levels where retail traders place stop-loss orders. These clean, double-tapped levels create liquidity pools that institutional algorithms specifically target. The more obvious and clean the level appears on the chart, the more likely it is to be swept as a Turtle Soup setup.
How far should the sweep extend beyond the previous level for a valid Turtle Soup?
The ideal sweep extension for a Turtle Soup setup is typically 5-25% of the Average True Range (ATR) beyond the previous high or low. This range is enough to trigger stop-loss orders clustered behind the level without constituting a genuine breakout. Sweeps of less than 5% of ATR may not have captured sufficient liquidity to fuel the reversal. Sweeps exceeding 40% of ATR suggest the move may be a legitimate breakout rather than a stop hunt, reducing the probability of a reversal. The sweet spot for most currency pairs is a sweep of 10-20 pips beyond the previous level, though this varies with volatility. Higher timeframe levels may see larger sweeps while lower timeframe levels typically show tighter sweeps.
What are the optimal entry methods for trading a Turtle Soup reversal?
There are three primary entry methods for Turtle Soup reversals ranked by aggression. The aggressive entry involves placing a limit order at or slightly inside the previous level immediately after the sweep, anticipating the reversal without waiting for confirmation. The standard entry waits for a market structure shift on the 1-5 minute chart after the sweep, then enters on the first displacement candle in the reversal direction. The conservative entry waits for the MSS, then enters on a retrace to a Fair Value Gap or order block created during the reversal move. Stop loss for all methods should be placed beyond the sweep extreme with a buffer. The aggressive method offers the best risk-to-reward but lower win rate, while the conservative method has a higher win rate but reduced profit potential.
How do you set stop-loss and take-profit levels for a Turtle Soup trade?
Stop-loss placement for Turtle Soup trades should be beyond the sweep extreme, typically adding a buffer of 50-100% of the sweep size above the high (for shorts) or below the low (for longs). This accounts for possible secondary sweeps or wicks. For take-profit, use multiple targets based on risk multiples: TP1 at 2:1 risk-to-reward for partial profit (take 30-50% off), TP2 at 3:1 for another partial exit, and TP3 at 5:1 for the final runner position. Alternative targets include the opposite end of the daily range, the next significant opposing liquidity level, or the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the sweep range. Move the stop loss to break-even after TP1 is reached to ensure the trade becomes risk-free.
Can Turtle Soup setups be combined with other ICT concepts for higher probability?
Absolutely, and combining Turtle Soup with other ICT concepts dramatically improves the win rate. The highest-probability Turtle Soup setups feature multiple confluences: the sweep occurs during a killzone session (London or New York open), the target level aligns with a higher timeframe premium or discount zone, a Fair Value Gap or order block exists near the swept level for entry refinement, the daily or weekly bias supports the reversal direction, and the sweep coincides with an NWOG or NDOG level. When three or more of these confluences align, ICT practitioners report win rates exceeding 70%. The Turtle Soup concept also pairs well with the Judas Swing pattern, as the false move at session open often manifests as a Turtle Soup sweep of the previous session extreme.
What market conditions produce the most reliable Turtle Soup setups?
Turtle Soup setups are most reliable in ranging or mean-reverting market conditions where price oscillates between defined support and resistance levels. During strong trending markets, what appears to be a Turtle Soup sweep may actually be a legitimate breakout continuation, leading to failed reversals. The best conditions include markets that have been in a consolidation range for multiple days or weeks, periods of declining volatility (measured by narrowing Bollinger Bands or declining ATR), and days without high-impact economic news events that could override technical patterns. Additionally, the setup works better on major currency pairs with high institutional participation than on exotic pairs or low-liquidity instruments.
How do you distinguish between a Turtle Soup and a genuine breakout?
Several key differences help distinguish Turtle Soup reversals from genuine breakouts. A Turtle Soup sweep typically shows long wicks beyond the level with candle bodies closing back inside, a quick reversal within 1-3 candles after the sweep, decreasing volume on the breakout attempt, and the move occurs against the higher timeframe trend or bias. In contrast, genuine breakouts feature strong candle body closes beyond the level, follow-through momentum with multiple candles closing beyond, increasing volume on the breakout, and alignment with the higher timeframe trend direction. The most reliable distinguishing factor is whether the breakout candle closes its body beyond the level. Wick-only sweeps that close back inside the range are classic Turtle Soup signatures.
What is the historical performance and win rate of Turtle Soup strategies?
Historical backtesting by various ICT practitioners and trading communities suggests that properly filtered Turtle Soup setups produce win rates of approximately 55-65% with average risk-to-reward ratios of 2:1 to 3:1, making the strategy profitable overall. The original Turtle Soup strategy by Raschke and Connors reported similar statistics in their 1996 book Street Smarts. The key variable affecting performance is trade selection: traders who apply strict filtering criteria (killzone timing, higher timeframe alignment, proper sweep size relative to ATR, confirmation through market structure shift) consistently outperform those who trade every potential sweep. Position sizing using 1-2% risk per trade is recommended. The strategy tends to have clusters of winners and losers, so maintaining discipline through losing streaks is essential for long-term profitability.
References
Reviewed for accuracy by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer · Editorial policy
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