Employee Attrition Risk Score
Calculate employee flight risk based on compensation, engagement, and tenure. Enter values for instant results with step-by-step formulas.
Formula
Risk = ฮฃ(Factor Risk ร Weight) where factors include salary, engagement, promotion, manager, work-life, growth
Each factor contributes to overall risk based on its deviation from ideal and its weight (salary and engagement weighted highest at 20% each). Risk above 40% warrants immediate intervention.
Worked Examples
Example 1: High-Performer Flight Risk
Problem: Senior engineer: 36 months tenure, no promotion in 30 months, 92% salary competitiveness, 60% engagement, 55% manager rating, strong skills.
Solution: Risk Factors:\nTenure: 10 (stable period)\nPromotion: 25 (30 months without)\nSalary: 20 (below market)\nEngagement: 40 (concerning)\nManager: 45 (major issue)\n\nWeighted Risk:\n10ร0.1 + 25ร0.15 + 20ร0.2 + 40ร0.2 + 45ร0.15\n= 1 + 3.75 + 4 + 8 + 6.75 = 23.5 + (WLB/Growth)\n\nOverall: ~55% attrition risk (High)\n\nPriority Actions:\n1. Manager coaching or team change\n2. Immediate promotion discussion\n3. Salary adjustment to 105%+\n\nCost of inaction: $112K replacement
Result: 55% risk (High) | Manager & promotion critical | Act within 2 weeks
Example 2: Engaged New Hire
Problem: Marketing analyst: 8 months tenure, recent hire (no promotion expected), 100% salary, 85% engagement, 80% manager rating, good growth path.
Solution: Risk Factors:\nTenure: 30 (first year risk)\nPromotion: 5 (recent hire, expected)\nSalary: 10 (competitive)\nEngagement: 15 (good)\nManager: 20 (positive)\n\nWeighted Risk:\n30ร0.1 + 5ร0.15 + 10ร0.2 + 15ร0.2 + 20ร0.15\n= 3 + 0.75 + 2 + 3 + 3 = 11.75 + (WLB/Growth)\n\nOverall: ~22% attrition risk (Moderate)\n\nMonitor but low priority:\n- First-year onboarding support\n- 6-month check-in scheduled\n- Growth path documented\n\nTypical first-year risk, trending positive
Result: 22% risk (Moderate) | Normal first-year | Monitor & support
Example 3: Burnout Warning Signs
Problem: Project manager: 48 months tenure, promoted 12 months ago, 105% salary, 50% engagement (dropped from 80%), 70% manager, 40% work-life balance.
Solution: Risk Factors:\nTenure: 10 (stable)\nPromotion: 15 (recent, good)\nSalary: 5 (above market)\nEngagement: 50 (DROPPED 30 points!)\nManager: 30 (adequate)\nWork-Life: 60 (CRITICAL)\n\nWeighted Risk:\n10ร0.1 + 15ร0.15 + 5ร0.2 + 50ร0.2 + 30ร0.15 + 60ร0.1\n= 1 + 2.25 + 1 + 10 + 4.5 + 6 = 24.75 + Growth\n\nOverall: ~48% attrition risk (High)\n\nBURNOUT PATTERN:\n- Engagement drop is red flag\n- Work-life balance critical\n- Money won't fix this\n\nUrgent: Workload reduction, PTO, boundaries
Result: 48% risk (High) | Burnout pattern | Immediate workload intervention
Frequently Asked Questions
What is employee attrition risk?
Attrition risk is the probability an employee will leave voluntarily. It's calculated from factors like compensation, engagement, tenure, manager relationship, and career growth. High-risk employees (40%+) warrant immediate retention interventions.
What are the main causes of attrition?
Top factors: inadequate compensation (26%), limited growth (21%), poor management (17%), work-life imbalance (13%), lack of recognition (10%), and company culture (8%). Factors vary by industry, role, and generation.
How much does employee turnover cost?
Replacement costs: 50-200% of annual salary depending on role. Includes: recruiting, hiring, onboarding, training, lost productivity, and knowledge loss. A $75K employee costs $75K-150K to replace.
How do I reduce attrition risk?
Address top risk factors: competitive pay, clear growth paths, good management, flexible work, recognition programs. Conduct stay interviews, act on feedback, and intervene early with high-risk employees.
What is a healthy attrition rate?
10-15% annually is typical. Under 10% may indicate stagnation. Over 20% signals problems. Involuntary turnover should be under 5%. High-performer attrition is most costly and should be near 0%.
How does tenure affect attrition risk?
Risk is highest in first year (20-30% leave). Drops significantly after 2 years. Rises again after 5-7 years as employees seek new challenges. The 18-month mark is critical for engagement.