Draft Pick Value Estimator
Use our free Draft pick value tool to get instant, accurate results. Powered by proven algorithms with clear explanations.
Reviewed by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer
Formula
Value = 3000 * e^(-0.0145 * pick) + max(0, (totalPicks - pick) * 0.3)
Uses an exponential decay model inspired by the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart. Higher picks receive exponentially more value, with a small linear residual for late-round selections. The constant 0.0145 controls the rate of value decay across the draft.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Evaluating the #1 Overall Pick
Problem:What is the trade value of the first overall pick, and how does it compare to picks 12 and 20 combined?
Solution:Pick #1 value = 3000 * e^(-0.0145 * 1) + (224-1)*0.3 = 2,957 * 1 + 66.9 = ~3,024 points\nPick #12 value = 3000 * e^(-0.174) + (224-12)*0.3 = 2,521 + 63.6 = ~2,585\nPick #20 value = 3000 * e^(-0.29) + (224-20)*0.3 = 2,242 + 61.2 = ~2,303\nCombined = 2,585 + 2,303 = 4,888 points\nSurplus for team trading down: 4,888 - 3,024 = +1,864 points
Result:Trading down from #1 to #12 + #20 yields a surplus of ~1,864 points — a strong deal for the team trading down.
Example 2: Mid-Round Trade Package
Problem:Is trading pick #15 for picks #30 and #45 a fair deal?
Solution:Pick #15 value = 3000 * e^(-0.2175) + (224-15)*0.3 = 2,418 + 62.7 = ~2,481\nPick #30 value = 3000 * e^(-0.435) + (224-30)*0.3 = 1,941 + 58.2 = ~1,999\nPick #45 value = 3000 * e^(-0.6525) + (224-45)*0.3 = 1,561 + 53.7 = ~1,615\nCombined = 1,999 + 1,615 = 3,614\nSurplus: 3,614 - 2,481 = +1,133 points
Result:Picks #30 + #45 exceed pick #15 by ~1,133 points — favorable for the team trading down.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is draft pick trade value calculated?
Draft pick trade values are based on the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, originally developed by the Dallas Cowboys in the early 1990s. The chart assigns point values to each draft pick that decrease exponentially from pick 1 (highest value around 3,000 points) to the final pick (near zero). Teams use these values to negotiate trades by comparing the total points on each side. While the original chart has been updated over the years, the core principle remains: early picks are worth disproportionately more because they offer access to elite talent with higher success rates.
Why do early draft picks have so much more value?
Early draft picks carry a massive premium because historical data shows that top-10 picks produce Pro Bowl players at rates of 30-50%, while mid-round picks fall to single digits. The first overall pick has historically been worth roughly 30 times a late first-round pick and over 100 times a mid-round selection. This non-linear decay reflects the reality that elite, franchise-changing talent clusters at the top of the draft. Additionally, early picks come with fully guaranteed contracts under the rookie wage scale, giving teams cost-controlled access to premium players.
How do I evaluate a fair draft pick trade?
To evaluate a trade, sum the chart values for all picks each team gives up. If the values are roughly equal (within 5-10%), the trade is considered fair. For example, if you trade the 10th pick (value ~2,600) for picks 20 and 25 (values ~1,900 + ~1,600 = 3,500), you are actually getting a surplus. However, modern analytics suggest the classic chart undervalues picks in rounds 2-4, where teams can still find quality starters at lower cost. Many teams now use updated models like the Rich Hill or Harvard Sports Analysis charts that give more credit to mid-round selections.
What is Career Approximate Value (AV)?
Career Approximate Value is a metric developed by Pro Football Reference to quantify a player total career contribution into a single number. An AV of 50+ indicates a borderline Hall of Fame career, 30-50 represents a quality long-term starter, and below 15 is a replacement-level player or bust. First overall picks average a career AV around 55-65, while late first-rounders average around 30-35. The metric considers games started, statistical production relative to position, and team success. This estimator uses historical AV regression to predict expected career value based on draft position.
References
Reviewed by Daniel Agrici, Founder & Lead Developer · Editorial policy