Trading Journal Analyzer

Formula

Expectancy = (Win% x Avg Win) - (Loss% x Avg Loss)

Expectancy is the average expected profit per trade. Profit Factor = Gross Profits / Gross Losses. Kelly% = Win Rate - (Loss Rate / Risk-Reward Ratio). These metrics together reveal whether a trading strategy has a statistical edge and the optimal position size.

Worked Examples

Example 1: Swing Trader Monthly Review

Problem: A swing trader completed 80 trades this month: 48 winners with $200 average win, 32 losers with $120 average loss. Starting balance was $25,000. Max consecutive losses: 4.

Solution: Win rate = 48/80 = 60%\nTotal profit = (48 x $200) - (32 x $120) = $9,600 - $3,840 = $5,760\nProfit factor = $9,600 / $3,840 = 2.50\nRisk-reward ratio = $200 / $120 = 1.67\nExpectancy = (0.60 x $200) - (0.40 x $120) = $120 - $48 = $72 per trade\nMax drawdown = 4 x $120 = $480 (1.9% of account)\nKelly = 60% - (40% / 1.67) = 36.0%

Result: Net Profit: $5,760 (23%) | Expectancy: $72/trade | Profit Factor: 2.50 | Kelly: 36%

Example 2: Scalper Performance Analysis

Problem: A scalper made 500 trades: 325 winners averaging $30, 175 losers averaging $50. Starting balance $5,000. Max consecutive losses: 8.

Solution: Win rate = 325/500 = 65%\nTotal profit = (325 x $30) - (175 x $50) = $9,750 - $8,750 = $1,000\nProfit factor = $9,750 / $8,750 = 1.11\nRisk-reward = $30 / $50 = 0.60\nExpectancy = (0.65 x $30) - (0.35 x $50) = $19.50 - $17.50 = $2.00 per trade\nMax drawdown = 8 x $50 = $400 (8% of account)\nKelly = 65% - (35% / 0.60) = 6.7%

Result: Net Profit: $1,000 (20%) | Expectancy: $2/trade | Profit Factor: 1.11 | Kelly: 6.7%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is expectancy in trading and why is it important?

Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade over a large sample. It is calculated as (Win Rate x Average Win) minus (Loss Rate x Average Loss). A positive expectancy means your trading system is profitable over time, while a negative expectancy means you are losing money. For example, if you win 55 percent of trades with an average win of $150 and lose 45 percent with an average loss of $100, your expectancy is (0.55 x 150) - (0.45 x 100) = $37.50 per trade. This single number summarizes whether your strategy has a statistical edge and is arguably the most important metric in any trading journal analysis.

How does leverage work in forex trading?

Leverage lets you control a larger position with a smaller deposit (margin). At 100:1 leverage you control $100,000 with $1,000 margin. While leverage amplifies profits, it equally amplifies losses and can lead to margin calls if the market moves against you.

What is the spread and how does it affect trading costs?

The spread is the difference between the bid and ask price of a currency pair, measured in pips. It represents the broker's fee on each trade. Major pairs like EUR/USD typically have tighter spreads (0.5-2 pips) than exotic pairs (5-20 pips).

Is Trading Journal Analyzer free to use?

Yes, completely free with no sign-up required. All calculators on NovaCalculator are free to use without registration, subscription, or payment.

How accurate are the results from Trading Journal Analyzer?

All calculations use established mathematical formulas and are performed with high-precision arithmetic. Results are accurate to the precision shown. For critical decisions in finance, medicine, or engineering, always verify results with a qualified professional.

Is my data stored or sent to a server?

No. All calculations run entirely in your browser using JavaScript. No data you enter is ever transmitted to any server or stored anywhere. Your inputs remain completely private.