Football Field Goal Probability Calculator
Estimate field goal success probability based on distance, weather, and kicker stats. Enter values for instant results with step-by-step formulas.
Formula
P(success) = 100 / (1 + e^(k(d - midpoint))) x SkillFactor - WindPenalty + TempAdj + IndoorBonus
The base probability uses a logistic regression model where d is distance in yards, k is a steepness factor (0.115), and midpoint is the 50% probability distance (47 yards). Adjustments are made for kicker skill relative to league average, wind speed and direction, temperature, and indoor/outdoor venue.
Worked Examples
Example 1: Standard 40-Yard Attempt
Problem: An 85% career-accuracy kicker attempts a 40-yard field goal outdoors with 10 mph crosswind at 55 degrees Fahrenheit.
Solution: Base probability at 40 yards: 100 / (1 + e^(0.115 x (40-47))) = 69.2%\nSkill factor: 85/85 = 1.0x\nCrosswind penalty: 10 mph x 1.2 = 12.0 percentage points\nTemperature adjustment: 55F = no adjustment\nAdjusted probability: 69.2% x 1.0 - 12.0 = 57.2%\nExpected points: 0.572 x 3 = 1.72 points
Result: 57.2% success probability | 1.72 expected points | Decision: Attempt Field Goal
Example 2: Long-Distance Indoor Attempt
Problem: A 90% career-accuracy kicker attempts a 55-yard field goal in a dome (no wind, 72F).
Solution: Base probability at 55 yards: 100 / (1 + e^(0.115 x (55-47))) = 28.6%\nSkill factor: 90/85 = 1.059x\nNo wind penalty (indoor)\nNo temperature adjustment (72F)\nIndoor bonus: +5%\nAdjusted probability: 28.6% x 1.059 + 5 = 35.3%\nExpected points: 0.353 x 3 = 1.06 points
Result: 35.3% success probability | 1.06 expected points | Decision: Consider game situation carefully
Frequently Asked Questions
How is field goal probability calculated based on distance?
Field goal probability follows a logistic (sigmoid) curve that decreases as distance increases. NFL historical data shows that kickers make approximately 95 percent of attempts from 20 to 29 yards, 87 percent from 30 to 39 yards, 80 percent from 40 to 49 yards, and roughly 65 percent from 50 to 59 yards. Beyond 60 yards, the success rate drops below 30 percent. Football Field Goal Probability Calculator uses a logistic regression model fitted to these historical success rates, with the inflection point near 47 yards where probability crosses 50 percent for an average kicker. The sigmoid shape reflects the physical reality that each additional yard of distance requires exponentially more precise leg speed, angle, and timing.
How does wind affect field goal accuracy in the NFL?
Wind is one of the most significant environmental factors affecting field goal success. A headwind directly opposes the ball flight path, requiring the kicker to generate more power which often compromises accuracy, reducing success rates by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points per mile per hour of headwind. Crosswinds push the ball laterally, requiring the kicker to aim off-center and trust the wind to carry the ball back, reducing accuracy by roughly 1 to 1.5 percentage points per mph. Tailwinds provide a slight benefit of about 0.5 percentage points per mph by extending the ball carry distance. Wind gusts are especially problematic because inconsistent wind makes trajectory prediction nearly impossible for kickers adjusting their aim and power.
What is the longest field goal ever made in the NFL?
The NFL record for the longest field goal is 66 yards, kicked by Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens in September 2021 against the Detroit Lions. The ball hit the crossbar and bounced through, making it one of the most dramatic plays in NFL history. Before Tucker, the record was 64 yards shared by Matt Prater (2013) and Tom Dempsey (1970). At 66 yards, statistical models estimate the success probability at roughly 5 to 10 percent for an elite kicker under favorable conditions. These extreme-distance kicks typically require ideal conditions including minimal wind, moderate temperature, and often high altitude like at Denver where the thinner air reduces air resistance and allows the ball to travel farther.
How do indoor stadiums affect field goal probability?
Indoor stadiums provide a controlled environment that eliminates wind and temperature as variables, resulting in measurably higher field goal success rates. NFL data consistently shows that kickers perform approximately 3 to 5 percentage points better in domed stadiums compared to outdoor venues, with the advantage increasing significantly for longer-distance attempts. The consistent footing, absence of wind gusts, and comfortable temperatures all contribute to more repeatable kicking mechanics. Retractable roof stadiums offer a hybrid advantage when the roof is closed. Teams that play in domes, such as the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts, often see their kickers post higher season-long accuracy percentages compared to teams in outdoor cold-weather markets.
When should a coach attempt a field goal versus punting or going for it?
The decision to attempt a field goal involves expected points analysis that weighs the probability of making the kick against the cost of missing. A field goal attempt is worth 3 points times the success probability, but a miss surrenders possession at the spot of the kick (the line of scrimmage plus 7 yards for the snap). Advanced NFL analytics suggest that field goal attempts are generally advisable when the expected points from the kick exceed the expected points from punting or attempting a fourth-down conversion. As a rough guideline, kicks under 45 yards are almost always worth attempting, kicks from 45 to 52 yards depend on game situation and kicker ability, and kicks beyond 55 yards are rarely advisable unless the game situation demands it.
How does altitude affect field goal distance and accuracy?
Higher altitude significantly benefits field goal kicking because the thinner air reduces aerodynamic drag on the football. At Denver, Colorado (5,280 feet elevation), the air density is approximately 17 percent less than at sea level, allowing kicks to travel 3 to 5 yards farther with the same leg power. This is why several long-distance field goal records have been set at Mile High Stadium. The reduced air resistance also means the ball maintains its velocity longer during flight, making the trajectory flatter and more predictable. However, altitude does not significantly affect accuracy or direction control, so the benefit is primarily in extending maximum range. Kickers visiting Denver for away games also benefit from this effect, making it a venue-specific advantage rather than a home team advantage.