Draft Pick Value Estimator
Use our free Draft pick value tool to get instant, accurate results. Powered by proven algorithms with clear explanations.
Formula
Value = 3000 * e^(-0.0145 * pick) + max(0, (totalPicks - pick) * 0.3)
Uses an exponential decay model inspired by the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart. Higher picks receive exponentially more value, with a small linear residual for late-round selections. The constant 0.0145 controls the rate of value decay across the draft.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is draft pick trade value calculated?
Draft pick trade values are based on the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, originally developed by the Dallas Cowboys in the early 1990s. The chart assigns point values to each draft pick that decrease exponentially from pick 1 (highest value around 3,000 points) to the final pick (near zero). Teams use these values to negotiate trades by comparing the total points on each side. While the original chart has been updated over the years, the core principle remains: early picks are worth disproportionately more because they offer access to elite talent with higher success rates.
Why do early draft picks have so much more value?
Early draft picks carry a massive premium because historical data shows that top-10 picks produce Pro Bowl players at rates of 30-50%, while mid-round picks fall to single digits. The first overall pick has historically been worth roughly 30 times a late first-round pick and over 100 times a mid-round selection. This non-linear decay reflects the reality that elite, franchise-changing talent clusters at the top of the draft. Additionally, early picks come with fully guaranteed contracts under the rookie wage scale, giving teams cost-controlled access to premium players.
How do I evaluate a fair draft pick trade?
To evaluate a trade, sum the chart values for all picks each team gives up. If the values are roughly equal (within 5-10%), the trade is considered fair. For example, if you trade the 10th pick (value ~2,600) for picks 20 and 25 (values ~1,900 + ~1,600 = 3,500), you are actually getting a surplus. However, modern analytics suggest the classic chart undervalues picks in rounds 2-4, where teams can still find quality starters at lower cost. Many teams now use updated models like the Rich Hill or Harvard Sports Analysis charts that give more credit to mid-round selections.
What is Career Approximate Value (AV)?
Career Approximate Value is a metric developed by Pro Football Reference to quantify a player total career contribution into a single number. An AV of 50+ indicates a borderline Hall of Fame career, 30-50 represents a quality long-term starter, and below 15 is a replacement-level player or bust. First overall picks average a career AV around 55-65, while late first-rounders average around 30-35. The metric considers games started, statistical production relative to position, and team success. This estimator uses historical AV regression to predict expected career value based on draft position.
How do I get the most accurate result?
Enter values as precisely as possible using the correct units for each field. Check that you have selected the right unit (e.g. kilograms vs pounds, meters vs feet) before calculating. Rounding inputs early can reduce output precision.
Can I share or bookmark my calculation?
You can bookmark the calculator page in your browser. Many calculators also display a shareable result summary you can copy. The page URL stays the same so returning to it will bring you back to the same tool.